[Fis] The Evolutionary Dynamics of Expectations (preprint)

Loet Leydesdorff loet at leydesdorff.net
Fri Jun 19 10:15:52 CEST 2020

  Loet Leydesdorff & Franz Hoegl, The Evolutionary Dynamics of 
Expectations: Interactions among Codes in Inter-Human Communications; 
preprint at  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3625512


Double contingency—each of us (Ego) expects others (Alter) to entertain 
expectations as we entertain them ourselves—can be considered as the 
micro-operation of an above-individual (i.e., social) logic of 
expectations. Meaning is provided to events from the perspective of 
hindsight, but with reference to horizons of meaning. Whereas “natural 
selection” is based on genotypes that are observable (like DNA), 
cultural selection mechanisms arenot hard-wired, but evolve. The 
“genotypes” of cultural evolution are codes in the communication which 
can operate as selections upon one another. Local instantiations shape 
trajectories; regimes operate as selection pressure with reference to 
the next-order horizons of meaning. These orders of expectations can 
operate incursively and hyper-incursively against the arrow of time and 
thus generate redundancies: (i) horizons of meaning can be expected to 
overlap and (ii) distinctions generate new options enlarging the maximum 
capacities. Information theory and the theory of anticipatory systems 
can be used for the elaboration of operations against the arrow of time. 
New options can be a synergetic effect of interactions among codes in 
the communication and serve as sources of wealth in a knowledge-based 

** apologies for cross-postings

Loet Leydesdorff

Professor emeritus, University of Amsterdam
Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)

loet en leydesdorff.net <mailto:loet en leydesdorff.net>; 
Associate Faculty, SPRU, <http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/>University of 

Guest Professor Zhejiang Univ. <http://www.zju.edu.cn/english/>, 
Hangzhou; Visiting Professor, ISTIC, 

Visiting Fellow, Birkbeck <http://www.bbk.ac.uk/>, University of London;

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7835-3098;
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