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<body><div><div> Loet Leydesdorff & Franz Hoegl, The Evolutionary Dynamics of
Expectations: Interactions among Codes in Inter-Human Communications;
preprint at <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3625512">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3625512</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div id="x2b8c4768920e407d86d9f29f153d955f">
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><b>Abstract<o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">Double contingency—each of us (<i style="font-size: 12pt;">Ego</i>) expects others (<i style="font-size: 12pt;">Alter</i>)
to entertain expectations as we entertain them ourselves—can be considered as
the micro-operation of an above-individual (i.e., social) logic of expectations.
Meaning is
provided to events from the perspective of hindsight, but with reference to
horizons of meaning. Whereas “natural
selection” is based on genotypes that are observable (like DNA), cultural selection
mechanisms <i style="font-size: 12pt;">are</i> <i style="font-size: 12pt;">not hard-wired, but evolve</i>. The
“genotypes” of cultural evolution are codes in the communication which can
operate as selections upon one another. Local instantiations shape
trajectories; regimes operate as selection pressure with reference to the next-order
horizons of meaning. These orders of expectations can operate incursively and
hyper-incursively against the arrow of time and thus generate redundancies: (<i style="font-size: 12pt;">i</i>)
horizons of meaning can be expected to overlap and (<i style="font-size: 12pt;">ii</i>) distinctions
generate new options enlarging the maximum capacities. Information theory and the theory of
anticipatory systems can be used for the elaboration of operations against the
arrow of time. New options can be a synergetic effect of interactions among
codes in the communication and serve as sources of wealth in a
knowledge-based economy.</p><p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office">** apologies for cross-postings</o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"><br /></o:p></p></div></div><div id="signature_old"><div id="x6d331811bd4e4c3"><div id="x78c9f4c0540648e7b564d127ae9a7d74"><div><div id="signature_old"><div id="x068ffe68e305459"><div id="xd031ae4a00354d21ab008b16080cd048"><div id="signature_old"><div id="x4f407acb80d4411"><div id="x775eaf3ae7f6460082dcdda3faf877c6"><div id="signature_old"><div id="x920d19d74fc84b0"><div id="x337b22579712426abf55c20f258d0a74">
<div class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#1F497D">
<hr size="3" width="100%" align="center" />
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<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#1F497D">Loet
Leydesdorff <o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#1F497D">Professor emeritus,
University of Amsterdam<br />
Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)<o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="mailto:loet@leydesdorff.net" title="mailto:loet@leydesdorff.net"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">loet@leydesdorff.net </span></a></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#1F497D">; </span><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="http://www.leydesdorff.net/" title="http://www.leydesdorff.net/"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">http://www.leydesdorff.net/</span></a></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#1F497D"> <br />
</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Associate Faculty, </span><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/"><span style="font-size:9.0pt">SPRU, </span></a></span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">University of Sussex; <o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Guest Professor </span><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="http://www.zju.edu.cn/english/"><span style="font-size:9.0pt">Zhejiang Univ.</span></a></span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">, Hangzhou; Visiting Professor, </span><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="http://www.istic.ac.cn/Eng/brief_en.html"><span style="font-size:9.0pt">ISTIC, </span></a></span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Beijing;<o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Visiting Fellow, </span><span style="color:#44546A"><a href="http://www.bbk.ac.uk/"><span style="font-size:
9.0pt">Birkbeck</span></a></span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">,
University of London; <o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></p>
<span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;color:#44546A;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><span style="font-size:9.0pt"><a href="http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ych9gNYAAAAJ&hl=en">http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ych9gNYAAAAJ&hl=en</a></span></span></div><div id="x337b22579712426abf55c20f258d0a74"><span style="color: rgb(68, 84, 106);" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><div id="x6d48cd6784e049409ff4972e00ee71a6"><div style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"></div>
<div><div><font face="Calibri" style="font-size: 9pt;">ORCID: <a href="http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7835-3098">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7835-3098</a>;</font><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </font></div></div><div id="signature_old" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><div id="x4f407acb80d4411"><div id="x775eaf3ae7f6460082dcdda3faf877c6"><div id="signature_old"><div id="x920d19d74fc84b0"><div id="x337b22579712426abf55c20f258d0a74"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></span></div><div id="x337b22579712426abf55c20f258d0a74"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><br /></div>
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