[Fis] Contingency signals: AI Information, Decision and Learning

[Pedro C. Marijuán]

Hi,

the messages below remind me Tomkins' "metabolic code " hypothesis. In a 
nutshell it says that most (?) signaling evolves from the detection of 
anomalous inner states, accumulating unwanted metabolic dead ends, and 
later on these very substances become signals that circulate inside and 
outside to trigger functional responses (the case of cAMP is 
highlighted). So, the individual contingent becomes later on the social 
determinant, and also the vice versa.
My memory is weak, my time short. Anyone interested may go to journal 
Science. GM Tomkins· 1975— The /Metabolic Code/: Biological symbolism 
and the origin of intercellular communication is discussed.
I think John's works are not far from these premises...

Greetings to all,
--Pedro

El 20/11/2025 a las 12:54, JOHN TORDAY escribió:
> Any way to test whether the AI 'parts' are representative of a 
> 'whole'? or just space-filling stuff....
>
> John Torday
>
>
> On Thu, Nov 20, 2025 at 4:29 AM Mark Johnson <johnsonmwj1 at gmail.com> 
> wrote:
>
>     Dear all,
>
>     A group of colleagues and I have been working on diagnostic AI for
>     some years  using a comparison technique. A few of us just
>     published this paper on the inter-relationship between management
>     decision making, the learning of decision-making and technology:
>     Developing judgement for business: an AI-based model of
>     independent management learning - ScienceDirect
>     <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296325006654__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!WPhKwNIaSyPehSx-1rv1IXkLmAKWvfhjcSoF8ycbMGpQLKjNmUeRHbMR7LBpcGoUSKLBgkQAwLAnZMgvKms0B4w$>
>
>     The role of information in this is obviously crucial - as is the
>     criticism of AI that it is an unreliable assistant. How might AI
>     tell us when it's not sure about things? While Shannon's H is a
>     kind of contingency signal, it is curious how with AI this aspect
>     of mathematical information theory is easily forgotten! However,
>     there does seem to be an intersection between the way information
>     is conceived and effective social decision-making where:
>
>     a. information is framed in terms of varying degrees of contingency
>     b. good decision concerns the effective allocation of scarce human
>     expertise to maximise organisational effectiveness
>
>     In essence, the greater the contingency in a judgement, the
>     greater the need to allocate human resource to debate choices; the
>     less the contingency, the less the need for humans in decision
>     processes.
>
>     The fundamental message is a management cybernetic one (i.e.
>     Stafford Beer) - it is not what the technology itself does, it is
>     how we organise ourselves with it that matters.
>
>     The technique in the paper illustrates a way in which degrees of
>     contingency in decision-making can be identified by the
>     technology. It is, we would suggest, this signal which we need
>     from our technology, not an "answer" to questions. So the pursuit
>     of "answer engines" (as Google and others are discussing) is
>     barking up the wrong tree.
>
>     A deeper question is whether some kind of "contingency signal"
>     lies at the heart of biological information itself. This would
>     have resonance with deeper cybernetic ideas about contingency
>     (Luhmann, Leydesdorff, Shannon, etc) and cellular organisation
>     (Torday and colleagues, Levin, etc) - whether a biological
>     "contingency signal" is produced in the gap between the internal
>     biological selection process of a cell (referencing its
>     evolutionary history acquired through symbiogenesis, for example)
>     and external selection pressure.
>
>     Any thoughts?
>
>     Best wishes,
>
>     Mark
>     -- 
>     Dr. Mark William Johnson
>     Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health
>     University of Manchester
>
>     Department of Eye and Vision Science (honorary)
>     University of Liverpool
>     Phone: 07786 064505
>     Email: johnsonmwj1 at gmail.com
>     Blog: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://dailyimprovisation.blogspot.com__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!WIqmXgBzVxcuxgalGooY4Yq-CHQ1U3Mku-L466EZZG6BW5fDyooomv4YqVQ7kUMVdprG8JhSL0yrsA6MSznw_SBrwS_c$ 
>     <https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://dailyimprovisation.blogspot.com__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!WPhKwNIaSyPehSx-1rv1IXkLmAKWvfhjcSoF8ycbMGpQLKjNmUeRHbMR7LBpcGoUSKLBgkQAwLAnZMgv378sKxM$>
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