[Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback

[Peter Erdi]

Dear FISer:

Personal Intro:
I am happily back in this community: I attended the 1994, 1996, and 2005 conferences. In the last twenty years, I have been active in the neural network community (https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.inns.org/fellows-senior-members/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFFCEJQy6$ ). In the previous five years, I published three books,
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Ranking-Unwritten-Rules-Social-Game/dp/0190935464/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFP9sLo6U$  ,
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$ 

The third is in press:
Feedback: How to Destroy or Save the World
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://link.springer.com/book/9783031624384__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFNkhhoPx$ <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$ > <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$ >
(There is a 20% discount code at checkout on link.springer.com:
I9rXjXjXbr7UGE / Valid Oct 10, 2024 – Nov 7, 2024). The Foreword was written by Michael Arbib.

I hope you don't mind if I hope to have a lively discussion about both feedback control and its potential role in answering the question:

Will humanity survive, and will our grandchildren live in prosperity? Or should we worry about the possibility of humanity's extinction?

Hypothesis: There is a narrow border between destruction and prosperity: to ensure reasonable growth but avoid existential risk, we must find a fine-tuned balance between positive and negative feedback. My attempt is not to deal with the impossible task, to prove (certainly not in the spirit of formal feedback control theory), but to support the belief. Chapters 1 - 5 are about the historical roles of feedback control in nature, technology, and society. Chapters 6 and 7 discuss the dichotomy of destroying or saving the world and the role of feedback control in avoiding huge catastrophes.

I suggest starting the discussion with a specific topic, but I am open to any comments, initial remarks, etc.

Chapter 1: Norbert Wiener's Dream: Technology, Life, and Society

This chapter overviews the birth of Cybernetics as a general theory of
goal-seeking systems. It introduces the notion of positive and negative feedback and gives credit to the General Systems Theory, which gave a framework for integrating the natural sciences with the social sciences. Modern computers made possible the simulation of social systems based on causal relationships among state variables, leading to various predicted scenarios about the world's future, some pessimistic.
One clear insight is that uncontrolled technological progress may negatively affect the environment, and we need to maintain a balance between economic growth and sustainability.

Chapter 2: Feedback Control in the History of Technology

This chapter gives an overview of the application of feedback control
throughout technological development. In technological systems, the goal is to ensure that some physical quantities, such as temperature, pressure, velocity, or altitude (and many others), show some desirable, prescribed behavior over time. Negative feedback stabilizes, while positive feedback amplifies even the initially minor differences.
Outriggers, mechanical clocks, steam engines, aviation technologies, and electronics are the main stages of progress toward the Space Travel Age. Feedback control systems played a crucial role in space exploration.

Chapter 3: Feedback Control in Biological Systems

Feedback control is a fundamental tool at every level of the biological hierarchy, from cellular to socio-ecological systems. It ensures homeostasis by adopting a general mechanism for restoring certain states after a small perturbation. Dynamical diseases occur due to the impairment of control systems. The theory of nonlinear dynamics offers a mathematical framework to analyze pathological temporal patterns. It aims to find control strategies to shift the physiological parameters back into normal ranges.

Chapter 4: Climate Changes, Wildfires, Tsunamis

This chapter starts with analyzing the role of positive and negative feedback loops in climate systems. Self-reinforcing positive feedback loops could result in an irreversible tipping point when climate spins out of control, with catastrophic results. Reducing the chance of climate catastrophe must become a central focus for civilization today, and appropriate feedback control strategies should be implemented.

Chapter 5: From Laissez-Faire to Greenspan: Feedback Control in Economic Systems

This chapter analyzes a fundamental question: Should economics be controlled or not? Is the “invisible hand” and the self-regulation of free market capitalism the best possible mechanism, or does the economy need governmental intervention? Minsky’s hypothesis suggests that stability implies instability. It is an observational fact that the economy shows a cyclic pattern: business cycles with different frequencies
are very general. Uncompensated positive feedback is found to be a general mechanism leading to extreme events, among other hyperinflation.

Chapter 6: From Natural Disasters to Social Riots

This chapter starts with analyzing whether we should worry about the
possibility of existential risk. In the subsection about the complex system approach to political instability, several issues, namely terrorism, social unrest, and migration, are discussed. Finally, a short system-theoretical analysis implies that democracies do better than autocracies.

Chapter 7: Epilogue: The Narrow Border Between Prosperity and Destruction

Do we live in the best possible world or the shadow of existential risk? The answer is BOTH! To avoid disasters, we need to apply the spirit of feedback control.

The ball is in your court,
Péter Érdi, October 20, 2024
________________________________
From: Pedro C. Marijuán <pedroc.marijuan at gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, October 18, 2024 12:08 PM
To: Peter Erdi <Peter.Erdi at kzoo.edu>; 'fis' <fis at listas.unizar.es>
Subject: Re: [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback

Dear Peter,

Many thanks for your "pre-discussion" message.
My suggestion to channel such a broad approach is to divide it into two parts.

In the first one, the more scientific-technical part (what you mention about "the historical role of the concept of feedback".)
No doubt there are many points of interest there.
And later on, you could publish a second part about the related vision of the "big themes" and risks of our times.

I think in this way the discussion may flow with some easiness.
Otherwise we would be happy with whatever scheme you prefer.
All the best,
--Pedro

El 17/10/2024 a las 22:25, Peter Erdi escribió:
Dear Pedro and Dear FIS Colleagues:

Thank you for your introduction (I will make some slight corrections).

I will need several days to publish my formal introductory text.  I would like to discuss with you my thesis:

There is a narrow border between destruction and prosperity: to ensure reasonable growth but avoid existential risk, we must find the fine-tuned balance between positive and negative feedback.

I hope to discuss with you both the historical role of the concept of feedback and its possible contribution to destroying or saving the world. Apologies for the self-propaganda, I have a book in press https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://link.springer.com/book/9783031624384__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFNkhhoPx$   will write a discount code, (apologies again).

Stay tuned,

Péter Érdi
Henry R. Luce Professor of Complex Systems Studies

https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://blogs.kzoo.edu/perdi/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFIGWr1C6$ 
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI5wPgp7iWiUPwbXdRA-9VQ__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKttEg2g$ 
 Kalamazoo College<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.kzoo.edu/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFLJkHx4Q$ >
________________________________
From: Fis <fis-bounces at listas.unizar.es><mailto:fis-bounces at listas.unizar.es> on behalf of Pedro C. Marijuán <pedroc.marijuan at gmail.com><mailto:pedroc.marijuan at gmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 17, 2024 9:58 AM
To: 'fis' <fis at listas.unizar.es><mailto:fis at listas.unizar.es>
Subject: [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback


Dear FIS Colleagues,

We may start a new discussion session during next days.

Title:

Complexity and feedback: in nature, technology, and society

Presenter:

Peter Érdi
Henry R. Luce Professor
University of Kalamazoo (MI)


Greetings to all,

--Pedro
--------------------------------------------------------------
Pedro C. Marijuán
FIS Coordination
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