[Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback. Loops (OFF-LINE)

[Peter Erdi]

Thank you, Joe! Thank you Karl!

Joe: could you summarize what we should learn from Gian-Franco Minati in a paragraph or two? I knew the name, but don't really know his works. He is young (b. 1951.), but I don't find newer items since 2008" https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.geocities.ws/lminati/gminati/index.html__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Sm8PbLyGbeJ14NVMsUO1jrVsS0ccT6ZcHc963C8IEqeRBlmijxp34VaHyM-MQz3TOnpRP22X9Hc4bVKF3g-qvP5-$ 

Karl:  oh, "circular algorithms"! I should read more closely.
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I am somewhat disappointed; it looks like I did not manage to elicit a more focused discussion. Using the language of feedback control: the actual outcome deviates from my expectations, so I should improve my input to get a better result.

To be more specific, let's see whether or not several paragraphs from the chapter about Feedback Control in the Economic Process will initiate more responses. I promise I will not copy more large items from the book:

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Feedback is the transmission and return of information about the “state” of a system, i.e., about the amount of “stuff” accumulated in each of a system’s stocks over time. This information travels throughout a system and eventually returns to the flows that fill or drain the stocks, thus closing the system’s feedback loops. Generally speaking, the information being transmitted via feedback loops is used by agents to make decisions that alter a system’s flows and cause the system to adapt its behavior over time.

Positive feedback represents self-reinforcing processes and is generally responsible for systems’ growth or decline. Economic growth trends, multiplier processes, accelerator relationships, wage-price spirals, speculative bubbles, bandwagon effects, increasing returns, path-dependent processes, and anything that can be described as a vicious or virtuous circle can be represented with positive feedback loops. Financial panics and market crashes are examples of positive feedback in markets that head in a negative direction. Bubbles are positive feedback loops that instead send prices higher. From a psychological perspective, reinforcing feedback is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is a form of reinforcing feedback that results from the interaction between the economy and agents’ perceptions and expectations.

...

Negative loops, on the other hand, represent goal-seeking processes and many types of purposeful behavior. They can either stabilize systems or cause them to oscillate when their corrective action is delayed (by stocks). As such, negative loops are responsible for such phenomena as the “invisible hand” equilibrating processes of well-functioning markets and the unstable behavior of macroeconomic cycles.

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All the best,
Peter


________________________________
From: Karl Javorszky <karl.javorszky at gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2024 5:29 AM
To: Peter Erdi <Peter.Erdi at kzoo.edu>; fis <fis at listas.unizar.es>
Subject: Re: [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback. Loops (OFF-LINE)

Dear Péter,

Years flow by, and we keep discussing the same basic question of how our concepts are related, and how the relationships among our concepts picture the relationships we assume to be present in Nature.

The improvement in the discussion since 1995 is, in my eyes, that we can now name in detail what our problems are. We have found the relations among natural numbers which are depicting an interdependent interaction among the symbols as such. Whether we use the natural numbers as a kind of Laws Carved In Stone, as Nature certainly seems to do, is our decision. Pythagoras is heavily behind the idea.

Alex gives a tour d'horizon about the philosophic-theological background of our time. What I read out of his essay is that a great paradigm change is overdue.

To Joseph, with great respect. The circularities that undeniably affect our habitat (et nos in illis) should be accepted as fundamental rules for our physiology, neurology. (breath, eat, sleep are periodic - circular). It looks like a clever idea to embed our psychology in the factual limits - constraits - structure that physiology and neurology build. If a fish has a philosophy, according to which it uses legs and a tail to hunt on treetops, that fish gives too much credence to its reasoning and not enough credence to its observations.

In my latest summary,
 Liaisons Among Symbols, Javorszky, K. (2024). Liaisons Among Symbols. Curr Res Stat Math, 3(3), 01-08,
this is explained in more detail.

The paradigm changes have already happened. It is possible to exchange ideas about circular processes and which inbuilt patterns of coincidences one can expect. In fact, one-armed bandits operate day and night eg in Las Vegas. Only the mathematics behind the empirical existence of concurrently operating cycles has not been publicly discussed yet.

A great intellectual revolution worth it's name comes always with the aha! experience of something of course easy, self-evident and trivial, once one gets the principles.

In our case, the perspective change is like that one initiated by Copernic and Galileo.
1. Use a collection of related individuals
2. Use eg the values a, b of the sentence a+b=c
3. Order and reorder the collection
4. Find cycles
5. Organise the cycles
6. Use the numeric facts of there being different support-demand situations for statements about the collection that refer to observations enumerable by using identical units (Sumerian type of counting) relative to the statements about the collection that refer to observations enumerable by using different units (Akkadian type of counting).
7. Once there is too much space for so much diversity, once the diversity doesn't fit in the space.
8. This is all in tables, comparable to the trigonometric tables.
9. Your students can write a Tautomat in less than two weeks.

Thank you for bringing up classic cases wherein the relationship between parts and wholes can only be discussed if one has a symbol set made up of different units.

As to the eye-catcher of how mistakes, misallocations and the like happen during the functioning of a feedback based system, may I politely pose the following suggestion :

Let us build a feedback based circular system that functions, at first. Let us investigate in a subsequent step, what are critical components of that system.

Best wishes

Karl

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