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Dear All,</div>
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I appreciate your initial responses. I would wait another 48 hours to react.</div>
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I make one remark here regarding Joe's statement on recursion: As we all know, Cybernetics started with the Inaugural Macy Conference on
<b>Feedback Mechanisms and Circular Causal Systems in Biological and Social Systems.
</b>(see say a website useful for FISers:</div>
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<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.informationphilosopher.com/conferences/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!S3WknSSHQMsdwHvIBcbp7NhgZXS55XkgUU671DSJfPzX9KSMYANTlPEzJcmXShGP9j0O6dBtmLpPY0On7e4zc4iA$" id="LPlnk619194">https://www.informationphilosopher.com/conferences/</a>).</div>
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More to come on Wed.</div>
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Peter</div>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>From:</b> joe.brenner@bluewin.ch <joe.brenner@bluewin.ch><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, October 21, 2024 11:44 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Peter Erdi <Peter.Erdi@kzoo.edu>; Pedro C. Marijuán <pedroc.marijuan@gmail.com>; fis <fis@listas.unizar.es><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback. Loops</span>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">Dear Peter,</div>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">Thank you for your most interesting introduction. As someone rather unfamiliar with this part of the field, it would be helpful if you could clarify the purport you give to some familiar terms, namely - loop, circle (or cycle),
and spiral.</div>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">For me, a closed loop is a circle, and natural processes are not circular since they never come back to
<i>exactly</i> the same point, although it may be close to all intents and purposes. An open loop and a spiral to me are topologically and physically equivalent. I would place real recursive processes in ths category. The concept of recursion seems to me broadly
applicable to cognitive and social phenomena.</div>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">The domain of real processes is still larger, however, since it must include processes that change direction, stop and restart or "go backwards".</div>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">By this time, where are the loops?</div>
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<div style="font-size: 12pt;">Best wishes,</div>
<div style="font-size: 12pt;">Joseph</div>
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<div>Le 21.10.2024 01:30 CEST, Peter Erdi <peter.erdi@kzoo.edu> a écrit :</div>
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Dear FISer:</div>
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<i>Personal Intro:</i></div>
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I am happily back in this community: I attended the 1994, 1996, and 2005 conferences. In the last twenty years, I have been active in the neural network community (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.inns.org/fellows-senior-members/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFFCEJQy6$" id="OWA7e5a4d07-eb08-7918-2b94-bbe5b9b79b5b" class="OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.inns.org/fellows-senior-members/</a>).
In the previous five years, I published three books,</div>
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<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Ranking-Unwritten-Rules-Social-Game/dp/0190935464/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFP9sLo6U$" id="OWAc0525fa7-9ac6-3905-7417-fc0424eeb330" class="x_OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.amazon.com/Ranking-Unwritten-Rules-Social-Game/dp/0190935464/</a> ,,</div>
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<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$" id="OWAfb03b30b-1e68-76ad-770d-b6cb5410fa97" class="OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/</a></div>
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The third is in press: </div>
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<b>Feedback: How to Destroy or Save the World</b></div>
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<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$" id="OWA2297af36-56d1-d6f6-721f-139ec0d370d5" class="OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://link.springer.com/book/9783031624384</a><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.amazon.com/Repair-Improve-Objects-Ourselves-Society/dp/3030989070/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFKuHtajO$" id="OWAc777d2e4-cafb-3e29-ce21-a44b4d5c405f" class="OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable" style="text-decoration: none;"> </a></div>
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(There is a 20% discount code at checkout on link.springer.com: </div>
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<i>I9rXjXjXbr7UGE</i> / Valid Oct 10, 2024 – Nov 7, 2024). The Foreword was written by Michael Arbib. </div>
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I hope you don't mind if I hope to have a lively discussion about both feedback control and its potential role in answering the question:</div>
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<b>Will humanity survive, and will our grandchildren live in prosperity? Or should we worry about the possibility of humanity's extinction?</b></div>
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<i> </i></div>
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<i>Hypothesis: </i>There is a narrow border between destruction and prosperity: to ensure reasonable growth but avoid existential risk, we must find a fine-tuned balance between positive and negative feedback. My attempt is not to deal with the impossible task,
to prove (certainly not in the spirit of formal feedback control theory), but to support the belief. Chapters 1 - 5 are about the historical roles of feedback control in nature, technology, and society. Chapters 6 and 7 discuss the dichotomy of destroying
or saving the world and the role of feedback control in avoiding huge catastrophes.</div>
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I suggest starting the discussion with a specific topic, but I am open to any comments, initial remarks, etc.</div>
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<i>Chapter 1: Norbert Wiener's Dream: Technology, Life, and Society</i></div>
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This chapter overviews the birth of Cybernetics as a general theory of</div>
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goal-seeking systems. It introduces the notion of positive and negative feedback and gives credit to the General Systems Theory, which gave a framework for integrating the natural sciences with the social sciences. Modern computers made possible the simulation
of social systems based on causal relationships among state variables, leading to various predicted scenarios about the world's future, some pessimistic.</div>
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One clear insight is that uncontrolled technological progress may negatively affect the environment, and we need to maintain a balance between economic growth and sustainability.</div>
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<i>Chapter 2: Feedback Control in the History of Technology</i></div>
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This chapter gives an overview of the application of feedback control</div>
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throughout technological development. In technological systems, the goal is to ensure that some physical quantities, such as temperature, pressure, velocity, or altitude (and many others), show some desirable, prescribed behavior over time. Negative feedback
stabilizes, while positive feedback amplifies even the initially minor differences.</div>
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Outriggers, mechanical clocks, steam engines, aviation technologies, and electronics are the main stages of progress toward the Space Travel Age. Feedback control systems played a crucial role in space exploration.</div>
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<i>Chapter 3: Feedback Control in Biological Systems</i></div>
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<i> </i></div>
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Feedback control is a fundamental tool at every level of the biological hierarchy, from cellular to socio-ecological systems. It ensures homeostasis by adopting a general mechanism for restoring certain states after a small perturbation. Dynamical diseases
occur due to the impairment of control systems. The theory of nonlinear dynamics offers a mathematical framework to analyze pathological temporal patterns. It aims to find control strategies to shift the physiological parameters back into normal ranges.</div>
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<i>Chapter 4: Climate Changes, Wildfires, Tsunamis</i></div>
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This chapter starts with analyzing the role of positive and negative feedback loops in climate systems. Self-reinforcing positive feedback loops could result in an irreversible tipping point when climate spins out of control, with catastrophic results. Reducing
the chance of climate catastrophe must become a central focus for civilization today, and appropriate feedback control strategies should be implemented.</div>
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<i>Chapter 5: From Laissez-Faire to Greenspan: Feedback Control in Economic Systems</i></div>
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This chapter analyzes a fundamental question: Should economics be controlled or not? Is the “invisible hand” and the self-regulation of free market capitalism the best possible mechanism, or does the economy need governmental intervention? Minsky’s hypothesis
suggests that stability implies instability. It is an observational fact that the economy shows a cyclic pattern: business cycles with different frequencies</div>
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are very general. Uncompensated positive feedback is found to be a general mechanism leading to extreme events, among other hyperinflation.</div>
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<i>Chapter 6: From Natural Disasters to Social Riots</i></div>
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This chapter starts with analyzing whether we should worry about the</div>
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possibility of existential risk. In the subsection about the complex system <i>approach to political instability, several issues, namely terrorism, social unrest, and migration, are discussed. Finally, a short system-theoretical analysis implies that democracies
do better than autocracies.</i></div>
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<i> </i></div>
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<i>Chapter 7: Epilogue: The Narrow Border Between Prosperity and Destruction</i></div>
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Do we live in the best possible world or the shadow of existential risk? The answer is BOTH! To avoid disasters, we need to apply the spirit of feedback control.</div>
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The ball is in your court,</div>
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Péter Érdi, October 20, 2024</div>
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<div id="x_divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>From:</b> Pedro C. Marijuán <pedroc.marijuan@gmail.com><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, October 18, 2024 12:08 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Peter Erdi <Peter.Erdi@kzoo.edu>; 'fis' <fis@listas.unizar.es><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback</span>
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<div>Dear Peter,</div>
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<div>Many thanks for your "pre-discussion" message.</div>
<div>My suggestion to channel such a broad approach is to divide it into two parts.</div>
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<div>In the first one, the more scientific-technical part (what you mention about "the historical role of the concept of feedback".)</div>
<div>No doubt there are many points of interest there.</div>
<div>And later on, you could publish a second part about the related vision of the "big themes" and risks of our times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I think in this way the discussion may flow with some easiness. </div>
<div>Otherwise we would be happy with whatever scheme you prefer.</div>
<div>All the best,</div>
<div>--Pedro</div>
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<div>El 17/10/2024 a las 22:25, Peter Erdi escribió:</div>
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Dear Pedro and Dear FIS Colleagues:</div>
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Thank you for your introduction (I will make some slight corrections).</div>
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I will need several days to publish my formal introductory text. I would like to discuss with you my thesis:</div>
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<b>There is a narrow border between destruction and prosperity: to ensure reasonable growth but avoid existential risk, we must find the fine-tuned balance between positive and negative feedback.</b></div>
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I hope to discuss with you both the historical role of the concept of feedback and its possible contribution to destroying or saving the world. Apologies for the self-propaganda, I have a book in press
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https://link.springer.com/book/978303162438</a>4 will write a discount code, (apologies again).</div>
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Stay tuned,</div>
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Péter Érdi</div>
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Henry R. Luce Professor of Complex Systems Studies</div>
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<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://blogs.kzoo.edu/perdi/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFIGWr1C6$" id="OWAd0d95df5-3c62-6b2f-a5e1-1729c540bbad" class="x_x_moz-txt-link-freetext x_OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable">http://blogs.kzoo.edu/perdi/</a></div>
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<span style="color: currentcolor;"><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.kzoo.edu/__;!!D9dNQwwGXtA!Riy2Qkh0PimXlC7qOO0L0WhMXLRyScHp5jEvb9tSlHYDn5aLZUp0aA2WOHhM9mRN-R0qECHF-ReNWlzIFLJkHx4Q$" id="OWAde8907fb-136d-0738-5656-13421e9df77b" class="x_x_OWAAutoLink" data-auth="NotApplicable" style="color: currentcolor; text-align: left;">Kalamazoo
College</a></span></div>
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<div id="x_x_divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>From:</b> Fis
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<fis-bounces@listas.unizar.es></a> on behalf of Pedro C. Marijuán <a href="mailto:pedroc.marijuan@gmail.com" id="OWA2ebf5903-61e3-3860-878f-55f5bcc85465" class="x_x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E x_OWAAutoLink">
<pedroc.marijuan@gmail.com></a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, October 17, 2024 9:58 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'fis' <a href="mailto:fis@listas.unizar.es" id="OWAeedd5f41-6714-0017-678a-19e6084e164e" class="x_x_moz-txt-link-rfc2396E x_OWAAutoLink">
<fis@listas.unizar.es></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Fis] New Discussion Session--Complexity & feedback</span>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Dear FIS Colleagues,</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">We may start a new discussion session during next days.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Title:</p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><b>Complexity and feedback: in nature, technology, and society</b></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Presenter:</p>
<span style="font-size: 10px;"><b>Peter Érdi</b></span><br>
Henry R. Luce Professor<br>
University of Kalamazoo (MI)<br>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Greetings to all,</p>
--Pedro<br>
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Pedro C. Marijuán<br>
FIS Coordination<br>
<i>FIS Archives last 10 years:</i><br>
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<i>List of discussion sessions last 25 years:</i><br>
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