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<div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><font size="2" style="font-size: 10pt;"><b>Trajectories and Regimes in Research and Knowledge Evaluations: </b></font></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial;"><b>Contributions to an Evolutionary Theory of Citation? </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><font size="2" style="font-size: 10pt;"><br /></font></span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial;font-size:13.3333px;">Loet Leydesdorff, Lin Zhang, & Paul Wouters.</span></div><div><span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial;font-size:13.3333px;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><font size="2" style="font-size: 10pt;">Preprint available at <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4073223" style="">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4073223</a>.</font></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> </span>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">Abstract <o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></p>
<span style="line-height: 200%;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">Citation analysis can provide us with models of
the evolutionary dynamics in interhuman communications. In the cited direction,
observable citations can be aligned along historical trajectories and used for
institutionally oriented research evaluation. In the citing direction, the
knowledge contents are evaluated. </span><span style="line-height: 200%;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">The forward (cited) and the reflexive (citing) directions are relevant
for research and knowledge evaluations, respectively, and for an evolutionary
theory of citation. </span><span style="line-height: 200%;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">By recursively
selecting on historical trajectories, an evolutionary regime of expectations
can be a consequence of the cycling of information. Under selection pressure, orders
of expectations co-evolve on top of the historical trajectories.</span><span style="line-height: 200%;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"> We propose </span><span style="line-height: 200%;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">a model with indicators for measurement in both the cited and citing
directions using (i) a set of papers in the environment of a single
journal (Public Understanding of Science), (ii) a random sample
of journals, and (iii) the entire journal set of the Web-of-Science
(more than 10,000 journals). The models and measurements serve as a proof of
concept.</span></div></div><div id="signature_old"><div id="xd546cc8deccc4e7">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; font-size: 9pt;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><b><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 9pt;" size="1">_______________</font></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><b><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 9pt;" size="1"><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030599508"></a>Loet Leydesdorff</font></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><b><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 9pt;" size="1"><br /></font></b></p><div id="x37dfff32a36b4410ad8e891fea6bb1b8"><p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40" style="line-height:normal;"><b style=""><font style="font-size: 9pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1"><a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-59951-5" style="">"The Evolutionary Dynamics of Discusive Knowledge"</a>(Open Access)</font></b></p></div><div id="x37dfff32a36b4410ad8e891fea6bb1b8"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 8pt;" size="1">Professor emeritus, University of Amsterdam </font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><font style="font-size: 8pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1">
Amsterdam School of Communication Research (ASCoR)<o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><font style="font-size: 8pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1"><a href="mailto:loet@leydesdorff.net" title="mailto:loet@leydesdorff.net" style="">loet@leydesdorff.net </a>; <a href="http://www.leydesdorff.net/" title="http://www.leydesdorff.net/" style="">http://www.leydesdorff.net/</a>
<o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><a href="http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ych9gNYAAAAJ&hl=en" style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"><font style="font-size: 8pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1">http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ych9gNYAAAAJ&hl=en</font></a></p></div><div id="x37dfff32a36b4410ad8e891fea6bb1b8"><span><font style="font-size: 8pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1">
</font></span><p class="MsoNormal" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40" style="line-height:normal;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);"><font style="font-size: 8pt;"><font style="font-size: 8pt;" face="Times New Roman" size="1">ORCID: <a href="http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7835-3098" style="">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7835-3098</a>; </font><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"></o:p></span></font></p><span>
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