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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Dear List,</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Am responding to Joseph and to Diego.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">To the former, I agree on the
quantitative mirage when trying to formalize history. Perhaps the
best contents in Turchin's books refer to qualitative aspects, for
instance the development of "frontier" countries he discusses (the
cases of Russia, Spain, and US and others). The main point on the
emergence of those long term trends of progression/regression or
oscillations is very intriguing and I think we cannot substantiate
it easily. The organization of an ad hoc discussion session would
be quite interesting (can someone help on that possibility?). The
relationship with the historical acceleration an the emergence of
new of information flows would also be intriguing. As I comment
below, it can be a fertile new field and a necessity to be covered
by information philosophy. We badly need to put the most relevant
aspects in an integrative view.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">To Diego, my focus was not only in the
Latin American countries. If we contemplate recent months/years,
we see many other mass explosions (Algeria, Tunisia, Thailand,
Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine, Jordania...) and I had already
included other Arab countries, plus Spain, France, and other
movements: Trumpism, Brexiterism, and also we could include
Metooism, indignados, and all kinds of offendidisms &
populisms... Everywhere there are deep causes around for
mass-mobilization, some are different, some may be common. But it
is not just the arrival of "conquistadores" scapegoat. By the way,
they parted away two centuries ago, and some of those countries
were not in bad shape 50-60 years ago (Argentina, Venezuela,
Uruguay, Cuba.... The case of Argentina is amazing: after WWI she
was the fourth richest country of the world. Venezuela's case,
unfortunately, is more dramatic). Coincidentally, in discussions
with Islamic-inclined parties, I was surprised to find another
scapegoat widely argumented: the Crusades. Islamic societies
failed to make the different modern transitions due to the
cultural-political crisis brought forth by the crusades
(seven-eight centuries ago!). Well, to escape from traditional
cliches or from political preferences I think Acemoglu's views are
quite balanced about these themes, particularly in his 2012 book,
<i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail"
title="Why Nations Fail">Why Nations Fail</a></i>. Our
colleague Howard Bloom has also written penetrating analyses on
the historical evolution of Islamic societies versus the Western
world.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Summing up, that the new media are one
of those deep causes contributing to irritated socio-political and
cultural climates is an idea that can be found in quite a few
analyses today. Coincidentally I could read this weekend an
international analyst with very similar opinions to my own on the
e-destabilization in the mentioned world regions. Widespread
mass-additions to e-life are a fact: data on use of screens are
outrageous. Adults in the US spend on average more that ten hours
daily watching, reading,
listening to or simply interacting with media. US adolescents
spend an
average of 9 hours daily in front of their cell
phones screens. In parallel, a growing
epidemics of adolescent medicalization and prescription of opioids
and drug abuse is taking shape. That means a brave new style of
life and a brave new mode of thinking are on the advance... <br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Best regards</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">--Pedro<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">El 22/11/2019 a las 12:54, Joseph
Brenner escribió:</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";color:navy">Dear Pedro
and All,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";color:navy"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">I agree in general with Pedro on
the importance of Turchin’s transdisciplinary
approach, but feel that something is missing in his
attempted synthesis in <i><span style="font-style:italic">Cliodynamics.
</span></i>I say attempted for two reasons:
for me, he overemphasizes the role of mathematics –
historical databases
and such, and the title of his journal is <i><span
style="font-style:italic">Quantitative
History and Cultural Evolution. </span></i>This is
not to say that mathematical
methods do not have a role, but if the objective is that
history become an
analytical, predictive science like others so described, I
see the potential
loss of its essential <i><span style="font-style:italic">qualitative</span></i>
aspects. The statement that Trump is worse than Nixon is
not analytical.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">The (clio)dynamics of Pedro’s 5
points are also non-analytical
and non-mathematizable. However, he uses two, related
terms that I think should
be unpacked: 1) low progress 2) secular oscillation. I see
decades-long trends
of <i><span style="font-style:italic">re-</span></i>gress,
such that only if
the sinusoidal oscillation can also move backwards is it
fair to call it an
oscillation<i><span style="font-style:italic">.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans
Unicode" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">If it is a fundamental <i><span
style="font-style:italic">irrationality</span></i>
that is underlying current cultural evolution –or perhaps
better <i><span style="font-style:italic">de</span></i>volution,
then the practice of
Information Science and Philosophy must take this into
account to be
meaningful.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans
Unicode" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">I am not arguing for the sake of
arguing, but the repetition of
only the most commonly accepted usages of terms is not
going to help.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">Thank you and best wishes,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB">Joseph<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans
Unicode" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic" lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans
Unicode" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic" lang="EN-GB"> </span></font></i><font
size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Lucida Sans Unicode";color:navy" lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Lucida Sans Unicode"
color="navy"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans
Unicode";
color:navy" lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Arial" color="navy"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy"
lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold"
lang="EN-US">From:</span></font></b><font size="2"
face="Tahoma"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma" lang="EN-US">
Fis [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:fis-bounces@listas.unizar.es">mailto:fis-bounces@listas.unizar.es</a>] <b><span
style="font-weight:bold">On
Behalf Of </span></b>Pedro C. Marijuan<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">Sent:</span></b>
vendredi, 22 novembre 2019
12:14<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">To:</span></b> 'fis'<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">Subject:</span></b>
[Fis] The Age of Discord</span></font><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:
12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">Dear FIS
& IS4SI Colleagues,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">"The
Age of Discord" was the title of a lecture that the
historian and
sociologist Peter Turchin, founder of the Cliodynamics
approach, gave recently
in the Netherlands. The slides can be easily obtained in
the web (in his blog).
The content was mainly referring to a decades-long trend
of low progress and
rise of inequality, and as a consequence growing social
unrest. It would form
part of a secular oscillation in history... But I think
there is a new potent
factor: the hyperconnectivity we talked weeks ago.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">These
days we are watching violent demonstrations in numerous
countries: Chile, Bolivia,
Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Iran, Irak, Lebanon... plus
Hongkong, Spain
(Barcelona), France (gilets jaunes), and the rising
polarization from Trumpism
and Brexit. There is a contagion effect in some cases. But
a common factor is
the influence of social networks. In several aspects: <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--How
easy is to organize demonstrations and activist
concentrations.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--How
easy is to disseminate information that efficiently
counteracts governments'
efforts to maintain social order. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--How
easyly anger and hatred are shared among the masses,
generating a collective
climate of insults, physical violence, highest irritation.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--How
easily outright lies, disinformation, vitriolic attacks
are jumping from screen
to screen to the eyeballs of hypnotized watchers.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--The
proportion of "negative" to "positive" (say of emotional
responses) has become the highest in the history of
communication.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">My
opinion is that the new media and new modalities of
hyperconnection, still
deprived of constraining cultural patterns, are the
genuine movers of this
"Age of Discord", without rejecting the other factors
implied in
Turchin secular views. This time there is something really
new agitating
history and the masses (like printing press, steam
engines...). Is there hope
that collective intelligence will domesticate this
artificial information flow
soon? Of course, without a loss of individual freedoms.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">Best
wishes<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt">--Pedro<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"><span
style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<pre cols="72"><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">-- <o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">-------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">Pedro C. Marijuán<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">Grupo de Bioinformación / Bioinformation Group<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><a href="mailto:pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es" moz-do-not-send="true">pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><a href="http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
<pre><font size="2" face="Courier New"><span style="font-size:10.0pt">------------------------------------------------- <o:p></o:p></span></font></pre>
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<p><br>
</p>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
-------------------------------------------------
Pedro C. Marijuán
Grupo de Bioinformación / Bioinformation Group
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es">pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/">http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/</a>
------------------------------------------------- </pre>
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