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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";color:navy'>Dear Pedro
and All,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>I agree in general with Pedro on the importance of Turchin’s transdisciplinary
approach, but feel that something is missing in his attempted synthesis in <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>Cliodynamics. </span></i>I say attempted for two reasons:
for me, he overemphasizes the role of mathematics – historical databases
and such, and the title of his journal is <i><span style='font-style:italic'>Quantitative
History and Cultural Evolution. </span></i>This is not to say that mathematical
methods do not have a role, but if the objective is that history become an
analytical, predictive science like others so described, I see the potential
loss of its essential <i><span style='font-style:italic'>qualitative</span></i>
aspects. The statement that Trump is worse than Nixon is not analytical.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>The (clio)dynamics of Pedro’s 5 points are also non-analytical
and non-mathematizable. However, he uses two, related terms that I think should
be unpacked: 1) low progress 2) secular oscillation. I see decades-long trends
of <i><span style='font-style:italic'>re-</span></i>gress, such that only if
the sinusoidal oscillation can also move backwards is it fair to call it an
oscillation<i><span style='font-style:italic'>.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>If it is a fundamental <i><span style='font-style:italic'>irrationality</span></i>
that is underlying current cultural evolution –or perhaps better <i><span
style='font-style:italic'>de</span></i>volution, then the practice of
Information Science and Philosophy must take this into account to be
meaningful.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>I am not arguing for the sake of arguing, but the repetition of
only the most commonly accepted usages of terms is not going to help.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>Thank you and best wishes,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'>Joseph<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy;font-style:italic'> </span></font></i><font size=2 color=navy
face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
"Lucida Sans Unicode";color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Lucida Sans Unicode"><span
lang=EN-GB style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Sans Unicode";
color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font
size=2 face=Tahoma><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
Fis [mailto:fis-bounces@listas.unizar.es] <b><span style='font-weight:bold'>On
Behalf Of </span></b>Pedro C. Marijuan<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> vendredi, 22 novembre 2019
12:14<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'fis'<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [Fis] The Age of Discord</span></font><span
lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Dear FIS
& IS4SI Colleagues,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>"The
Age of Discord" was the title of a lecture that the historian and
sociologist Peter Turchin, founder of the Cliodynamics approach, gave recently
in the Netherlands. The slides can be easily obtained in the web (in his blog).
The content was mainly referring to a decades-long trend of low progress and
rise of inequality, and as a consequence growing social unrest. It would form
part of a secular oscillation in history... But I think there is a new potent
factor: the hyperconnectivity we talked weeks ago.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>These
days we are watching violent demonstrations in numerous countries: Chile, Bolivia,
Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Iran, Irak, Lebanon... plus Hongkong, Spain
(Barcelona), France (gilets jaunes), and the rising polarization from Trumpism
and Brexit. There is a contagion effect in some cases. But a common factor is
the influence of social networks. In several aspects: <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--How
easy is to organize demonstrations and activist concentrations.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--How
easy is to disseminate information that efficiently counteracts governments'
efforts to maintain social order. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--How
easyly anger and hatred are shared among the masses, generating a collective
climate of insults, physical violence, highest irritation.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--How
easily outright lies, disinformation, vitriolic attacks are jumping from screen
to screen to the eyeballs of hypnotized watchers.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--The
proportion of "negative" to "positive" (say of emotional
responses) has become the highest in the history of communication.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>My
opinion is that the new media and new modalities of hyperconnection, still
deprived of constraining cultural patterns, are the genuine movers of this
"Age of Discord", without rejecting the other factors implied in
Turchin secular views. This time there is something really new agitating
history and the masses (like printing press, steam engines...). Is there hope
that collective intelligence will domesticate this artificial information flow
soon? Of course, without a loss of individual freedoms.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Best
wishes<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>--Pedro<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<pre cols=72><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>-- <o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>-------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Pedro C. Marijuán<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>Grupo de Bioinformación / Bioinformation Group<o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><a
href="mailto:pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es">pcmarijuan.iacs@aragon.es</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><a
href="http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/">http://sites.google.com/site/pedrocmarijuan/</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></pre><pre><font
size=2 face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>------------------------------------------------- <o:p></o:p></span></font></pre></div>
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